Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

Once again the US Federal Reserve is in a quandary. Does it cut its policy interest rate soon in order to relieve pressure on debt servicing costs for consumers and businesses and perhaps avoid a stagflationary economy (ie low or no growth alongside higher inflation); or does it hold its current interest rate for borrowing in order to make sure inflation falls towards its target of 2% a year?

Inflation and interest rates: the US experience

Sean Gervasi, 1992 lecture: The US Strategy to Dismantle the USSR

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Sean Gervasi, 1992 lecture: The US Strategy to Dismantle the USSR

Related RAND Corporation documents:

Economic factors affecting Soviet foreign and defense policy: a summary outline

The Costs of the Soviet Empire

Sitting on bayonets : the Soviet defense burden and the slowdown of Soviet defense spending

Moscow’s Economic Dilemma: The Burden of Soviet Defense

Exploiting ‘fault lines’ in the Soviet empire: an overview

Russians vote for Putin

For charts, see the original post.

Russians vote for Putin

Today Russians are set to head to the polls for their country’s presidential election over three days – with only one expected outcome. Incumbent President Vladimir Putin will win comfortably.  The Russian president is elected by direct popular vote. If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, then a second round is held between the two most popular candidates three weeks later. It’s the first time that multi-day voting has been used in a Russian presidential election, as well as the first allowing voters to cast ballots online. 

Russia’s war economy is holding up.  Wages have soared by double digits, the rouble is relatively stable and poverty and unemployment are at record lows. For the country’s lowest earners, salaries over the last three quarters have risen faster than for any other segment of society, clocking an annual growth rate of about 20%. 

The government is spending massively on social support for families, pension increases, mortgage subsidies and compensation for the relatives of those serving in the military.  

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Taiwan: the technology trade turn

Taiwan has a general election on Saturday. The international media has highlighted the election as an important geopolitical pivot – namely, if the current incumbent government party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), wins the presidency and legislature and continues its call for formal (not just de facto) independence from mainland China, that will mean intensified attacks on Taiwan by Beijing, perhaps leading to military conflict.

Taiwan: the technology trade turn

Guyanese Are Becoming Poorer Despite Living in World’s Fastest Growing Economy

With a GDP growth of over 63% in 2022, according to the World Bank, and an estimated GDP growth of about 38% in 2023, Guyana is frequently referred to as the world’s fastest-growing economy. The meteoric rise of Guyana’s GDP is almost entirely due to the exploitation of recently discovered oil reserves by US-based multinational petroleum corporation ExxonMobil, a company that traces its origins to Rockefeller’s Standard Oil company.

Guyanese Are Becoming Poorer Despite Living in World’s Fastest Growing Economy

Related:

Demographic profile

Guyana is the only English-speaking country in South America and shares cultural and historical bonds with the Anglophone Caribbean. Guyana’s two largest ethnic groups are the Afro-Guyanese (descendants of African slaves) and the Indo-Guyanese (descendants of Indian indentured laborers), which together comprise about three quarters of Guyana’s population. Tensions periodically have boiled over between the two groups, which back ethnically based political parties and vote along ethnic lines. Poverty reduction has stagnated since the late 1990s. About one-third of the Guyanese population lives below the poverty line; indigenous people are disproportionately affected. Although Guyana’s literacy rate is reported to be among the highest in the Western Hemisphere, the level of functional literacy is considerably lower, which has been attributed to poor education quality, teacher training, and infrastructure.

Guyana’s emigration rate is among the highest in the world – more than 55% of its citizens reside abroad – and it is one of the largest recipients of remittances relative to GDP among Latin American and Caribbean counties. Although remittances are a vital source of income for most citizens, the pervasive emigration of skilled workers deprives Guyana of professionals in healthcare and other key sectors. More than 80% of Guyanese nationals with tertiary level educations have emigrated. Brain drain and the concentration of limited medical resources in Georgetown hamper Guyana’s ability to meet the health needs of its predominantly rural population. Guyana has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in the region and continues to rely on international support for its HIV treatment and prevention programs.

CIA: World Fact Book

In first speech, Argentina’s Javier Milei warns nation of painful economic shock

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — It wasn’t the most uplifting of inaugural addresses. Rather, Argentina’s newly empowered President Javier Milei presented figures to lay bare the scope of the nation’s economic “emergency,” and sought to prepare the public for a shock adjustment with drastic public spending cuts.

In first speech, Argentina’s Javier Milei warns nation of painful economic shock

Related:

With soy and lithium trade in the balance, Argentina’s Milei has a China conundrum

Argentina election 2023: what you need to know