Certain credible sources report that a tactical nuclear option might be “on the table” with at least some of the members of the Russian Security Council. Though TNW has never been on the table throughout the conflict in Ukraine and has never been discussed up until now, there are signals that a certain number of Security Council members are at least prepared to consider such a scenario.

The worst-case option under discussion is predetermined by increasing sophisticated military supplies from NATO countries to Ukraine. Security Council members are looking at the delivery of Western high-precision and long-range systems and munitions to the Ukrainian theatre, as well as the participation of Western military personnel in on-the-ground combat (so far, it appears that Poles will be operating certain equipment, as training Ukrainian soldiers takes time, and Western powers appear to be very short on time for further escalation).

It seems that the Russian Security Council operates on the idea that Western countries are prepared to supply even more sophisticated weaponry into the zone of conflict to try to derail the Russian offensive, no matter the cost to the Ukrainian side. According to Security Council estimates, the inclusion of NATO military hardware operators and the participation of NATO battalions on the ground in Ukraine will likely extend the ongoing conflict far beyond its current borders.

Western hostile movements and risky stakes-raising have already forced Putin to increase his military to up to 1.5 mln in a response to NATO redeployment in Europe closer to Russian borders.

POLITBLOGME